Multi-Layer Soil Moisture Variability and Its Hydroclimatic Controls in Tajikistan, Central Asia

Tajikistan is highly vulnerable to climate change and depends heavily on agriculture, making soil moisture dynamics critical for water and food security. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of soil moisture variability across four depth layers (0–10 cm, 10–40 cm, 40–100 cm, and 100–200 cm) from 2000 to 2021 using NASA’s GLDAS-2 model and remote sensing data for land-air temperature, precipitation, and vegetation to identify key nexus of soil moisture change. Moisture data were converted to volumetric water content (m3/m3) to enable valid cross-layer comparisons. Our findings show that volumetric soil moisture increases with depth, from 0.219 m3/m3 at the surface to 0.293 m3/m3 in the deepest layer. Eastern Tajikistan exhibits higher moisture levels than the west, likely due to differing precipitation patterns. Seasonally, spring replenishes the soil with the highest moisture (0.270 m3/m3 at 0–10 cm), while summer strips it away (0.194 m3/m3 at 0–10 cm), potentially reflecting evapotranspiration losses. A significant warming trend is evident, with mean annual temperature peaking at 4.32 °C in 2016. Precipitation strongly influences upper-layer moisture (correlation: 0.49 at 0–10 cm; 0.44 at 10–40 cm). While annual averages remain stable, seasonal trends reveal significant winter wetting (+0.00043 m3/m3 per year, p < 0.001) and summer drying in the deepest layer, indicating intensifying seasonal contrasts. Vegetation follows a parallel pattern, declining from 2000 to 2010 and recovering thereafter. Greening is observed in 16.74% of the area, concentrated in the western mountains and northern highlands, while only 2.98% shows decline, mostly in small, fragmented patches. These findings highlight the substantial connection between climate, soil moisture, and vegetation in Tajikistan. They also suggest the need for depth-specific and seasonally aware water management strategies in this climate-sensitive region. Managing water here means looking beyond surface averages and thinking in layers, seasons, and geography.