Trust and risk perception shape consumer decisions on the Hungarian pork market during African swine fever

Abstract Disease outbreaks and other disruptions to the food industry test consumer confidence, credibility and decision-making. A hot topic and relevant example of the intersection of behavioral adaptation, risk perception, decision-making and credibility is African Swine Fever. With an emphasis on behavioral segmentation and trust-building mechanisms, this study examines how ASF-induced disruptions affect pork consumption behavior in Hungary. A mixed-methods approach was used to analyze behavioral aspects, including a quantitative survey of 331 Hungarian pork consumers. The poll evaluated anticipated behavior during a hypothetical ASF outbreak among domesticated pigs, risk perception, decision-making and trust in information sources. ANOVA, and descriptive statistics were used to evaluate the data. The findings reveal that over 60% of consumers would avoid pork purchases during an outbreak, with perceived health risk (F = 8.985, p < 0.001) and source credibility more clearly associated with stated purchase intentions than price-related items in this sample. Frequent consumers responded most favorably to price changes, intending to buy pork whether prices increased or decreased ( p < 0.001). Consumption frequency thus predicts crisis response behavior, but the effect is primarily driven by the distinction between occasional consumers and all others, rather than a linear frequency gradient. Consumers sourcing directly from producers demonstrated greater resilience, while official information sources were trusted most, highlighting a clear hierarchy of trust that must guide crisis communication strategies.