China-associated concentrations in gold open-access publishing: growth in APC exposure and business risk across twelve publisher groups

Commercial open-access publishing increasingly depends on research output from China, and this creates potential concentration exposure for major Western publishers. This work uses OpenAlex to analyse gold open-access articles and estimated list-price article processing charge (APC) exposure across twelve publisher groups. China-only affiliated articles accounted for 27.0% of the panel’s gold open-access output in 2025 and an estimated 28.6% of APC exposure, equivalent to USD 601 million. Dependence varied between publishers and fields, but China contributed disproportionately to recent growth for the open access / APC dominated groups, MDPI and especially Frontiers. Publisher-level estimates are compared with reported segment revenues and operating profits, and a set of withdrawal stress tests are included to illustrate possible business risk exposure under hypothetical reductions in Chinese output. The estimates are not realised revenues: waivers, transformative agreements, discounts and payment sources are unobserved, and likely the publishers will respond with cost cutting and potentially consolidation, but this may raise questions around integrity functions and versions of record, especially as the costs of integrity lag the initial submission revenues. In conclusion, China represents an additional possible business risk at a time when commercial open-access APCs are also under pressure in other territories.