Rural Cultural–Tourism Integration and the Stability-Oriented Pathway of Regional Economic Resilience in China

This study addresses the research gap concerning how rural cultural–tourism integration contributes to regional economic resilience, a relationship that remains underexplored despite growing policy interest in rural revitalization. Using cross-sectional data for 285 Chinese prefecture-level cities in 2020, the study constructs a multidimensional ACT (agriculture–culture–tourism) indicator system and employs XGBoost regression with SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis to examine the nonlinear associations between ACT factors and economic resilience. Spatial analysis reveals significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I = 0.412) and pronounced regional disparities. Machine learning results indicate that traditional village numbers and primary industry value-addedness are the most important predictors, with SHAP dependence analysis revealing threshold effects and diminishing marginal returns. An illustrative micro-level case study of 140 social media posts from Guangzhou provides interpretive evidence on how low-intensity, leisure-oriented tourism experiences mediate the translation of ACT resources into economic outcomes. The findings suggest that ACT integration is associated with stability-oriented resilience buffering rather than transformative growth, highlighting the importance of functional integration, product diversification, and institutional capacity for enhancing regional economic resilience.