LAB #1198 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: USDCHF LONG — improves win rate from 31.6% to 35.2% (+3.6pp, n=88) — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: USDCHF LONG — improves win rate from 31.6% to 35.2% (+3.6pp, n=88) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current trade window, applying a USDCHF LONG filter would have no direct effect on any open or closed trades, as all USDCHF entries shown are SHORT positions. The filter specifically restricts to LONG entries only, so it would not have altered any of the listed trades. The win-rate improvement of +3.6pp (n=88) is derived from a separate backtest window and does not retroactively apply to the live trades shown here. Therefore, the PnL delta for this specific window is zero. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the filter is expected to raise overall win rate modestly by ~3-4 percentage points, assuming the backtest sample (n=88) is representative and not overfitted. The primary risk is that the filter may reduce trade frequency on USDCHF, potentially missing profitable SHORT opportunities if the market r Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-08-20
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22022352
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #1198 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: USDCHF LONG — improves win rate from 31.6% to 35.2% (+3.6pp, n=88) — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #1198 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: USDCHF LONG — improves win rate from 31.6% to 35.2% (+3.6pp, n=88) — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: USDCHF LONG — improves win rate from 31.6% to 35.2% (+3.6pp, n=88) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current trade window, applying a USDCHF LONG filter would have no direct effect on any open or closed trades, as all USDCHF entries shown are SHORT positions. The filter specifically restricts to LONG entries only, so it would not have altered any of the listed trades. The win-rate improvement of +3.6pp (n=88) is derived from a separate backtest window and does not retroactively apply to the live trades shown here. Therefore, the PnL delta for this specific window is zero. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the filter is expected to raise overall win rate modestly by ~3-4 percentage points, assuming the backtest sample (n=88) is representative and not overfitted. The primary risk is that the filter may reduce trade frequency on USDCHF, potentially missing profitable SHORT opportunities if the market r Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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