Impacts and Spatial Spillover Effects of Artificial Intelligence Development on Government Governance Performance—Evidence from China

With the advancement of a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, regional AI development has become increasingly relevant to changes in government governance performance (GGP). However, existing research has predominantly concentrated on a single dimension or static effects of AI development on GGP, lacking systematic investigations into the short-term and long-term effects as well as spatial spillover effects. To address these research gaps, using panel data from 286 prefecture-level cities in China from 2009 to 2023, this study empirically examines the short-term and long-term effects, threshold effects, and spatial spillover effects of AI development on GGP. The research findings indicate that regional AI technological capacity is significantly and positively associated with GGP. The short-term and long-term effect tests reveal a negative association between AI development and GGP in the short term and a positive association in the long term. In the short term, this association may be constrained by the “creative destruction” effect, whereas in the long term, the positive association becomes stronger as regional technological capacity increasingly supports the integration of AI-related technologies into governance scenarios. There is a single-threshold effect between the institutional environment and the intensity of AI funding. Beyond the threshold value, the positive association between AI development and GGP becomes significantly stronger. Regional AI technological capacity is positively associated not only with local GGP but also with GGP in neighboring regions, potentially through technological spillovers and cross-regional collaboration. This study provides empirical evidence and theoretical support for the modernization of government governance empowered by AI.