Labor Force Nonparticipation in Rural and Urban America: An Examination of Prime‐Working‐Age Men and Women, 2000–2024

ABSTRACT Labor force participation is pivotal for the economic health of individuals, families, communities, and the nation. Conversely, labor force nonparticipation represents a major challenge to economic vitality. In this study, we investigate temporal trends for those not in the labor force (NILF) among prime‐working‐age (25–54) men and women during the first quarter of the 21st century, with a focus on differences between rural and urban residents. We also seek to establish whether and how the demographic, educational, and health profiles of the population account for such trends. Drawing on data from the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement from 2000 to 2024, we estimate a series of sex‐specific linear probability models predicting the probability that an individual is NILF as a function of our explanatory variables and controls. The analysis reveals two broad findings. First, among prime‐working‐age men, the probability of NILF is consistently higher in rural areas and the gap is growing. Two factors are associated with a substantial share of this gap, though they do not fully attenuate it: lower education and poorer health in rural areas. Second, among prime‐working‐age women, the probability of labor force nonparticipation is initially similar in rural and urban contexts, before a higher probability of NILF emerges in rural areas during the final decade. After controlling for other factors, however, the trend shifts to higher initial probabilities of NILF in urban areas and toward residential convergence over time. Two factors are associated with this shift: lower education and poorer health in rural areas. These trends hold critical implications for rural wellbeing in the 21st century.