Emissions trading scheme, carbon price and tourism specialization

Utilizing panel data from 286 Chinese cities during 2005–2021, this study employs a staggered difference-in-differences method to evaluate the impact of ETS on regional tourism specialization and its underlying mechanisms. The findings reveal a robust negative average treatment effect of ETS on tourism specialization, with the impact exhibiting dynamic intensification and cumulative characteristics. Mechanism analysis indicates that the policy indirectly suppresses tourism development through two pathways elevating government environmental attention and promoting green technology innovation. Moderating effect analysis shows that carbon prices are associated with a larger negative impact of the policy. Furthermore, regional heterogeneity analysis unveils that the central and western regions, as well as areas with lower levels of digital economy development and green finance, experience more pronounced shocks. This study contributes by developing a “dual resource crowding-out conceptual framework of carbon regulation”, which systematically reveals how carbon pricing affects non-regulated service sectors through government attention and market innovation pathways.