Habitat Redistribution of Dracaena cochinchinensis (Lour.) S.C.Chen in Southern China Under Climate and Land-Use Change: Current Distribution, Future Projections, and Conservation Implications

Climate and land-use change are shifting the spatial distribution and habitat suitability of many plant species, particularly those with narrow ecological niches and limited ranges. Dracaena cochinchinensis (Lour.) S.C.Chen is a medicinally important and nationally protected plant species distributed in tropical and subtropical southern China. Predicting its habitat suitability under current and future climate scenarios is essential for understanding its responses to environmental change and guiding conservation and resource management. In this study, an optimized maximum entropy model was used to predict the current habitat suitability of D. cochinchinensis in China and to assess changes in habitat suitability under future climate scenarios in the 2090s. The model showed reliable predictive performance for estimating species distribution. Under current conditions, suitable habitats were concentrated in southern China, particularly southern Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, Taiwan, and parts of Fujian, covering 23.93 × 104 km2 (8.31% of the study area). Mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), temperature annual range (Bio7), and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were the dominant predictors, highlighting the importance of thermal conditions in shaping species distribution, whereas lithology (Lith) and soil type (ST) were the major non-climatic contributors influencing habitat suitability. Under future scenarios, suitable habitats showed spatial redistribution rather than uniform expansion or contraction. The spatial comparison among future scenarios identified stable habitats in the central and southwestern parts of Hainan Island, south-central Yunnan, and western Guangxi, with habitat losses mainly occurring in coastal South China and limited expansion in southwestern regions. Habitat centroid shifts were scenario dependent, with an eastward shift under SSP1-2.6 and northwestward shifts under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, with migration distances ranging from 60.09 to 165.77 km. These results indicate that climate change may substantially reorganize the distribution pattern of D. cochinchinensis in southern China. Therefore, future conservation planning should prioritize current high-suitability areas, potential macroclimatically stable areas, and emerging suitable habitats to support long-term preservation and sustainable utilization of nationally protected medicinal species.