IS IT THE ECONOMY, STUPID? AN ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND INCUMBENT SUPPORT ACROSS OECD COUNTRIES 2000-2025

Building on the retrospective voting literature of Keys and Fiorina and large sample-pooled surveys of the 1990s, this paper seeks to evaluate the relationship between three macroeconomic indicators (GDP Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment) and incumbent support across 36 OECD countries and OECD accession candidate Brazil from 2000 to 2025. The relationship is tested via an original panel dataset and three hypotheses; Macroeconomic conditions effect incumbent electoral support: GDP growth, low inflation, and low unemployment cause voters to either ‘reward’ or ‘punish’ incumbents at the ballot box (H1); that this relationship is stronger in countries with greater clarity of responsibility (H2); and that economic voting has declined over time due to increased partisanship and increased post-material voting (H3). The results do not offer support for H1 in the baseline model and only GDP growth approaches significance (p = 0.064). H2 has limited support and H3 is not supported.