Late spring frost may hinder Scandinavian farmers from making advantage of the longer vegetation period

Abstract Climate change presents complex impacts on agricultural growing conditions. Agro-climate zones are expected to continue to migrate northwards and offer potential agricultural production benefits in Scandinavia. This notion has traditionally been a common framing in discussions about climate change impacts on agriculture in the region. A longer growing season can make way for new species and maximise yield. This study demonstrates that the growing season is projected to start earlier, but the last spring frost is not shifted as much, resulting in an increase in spring frost days and more frost events during sensitive developmental stages, raising frost exposure to both agricultural crop production and forestry in southern Sweden, Denmark, and the Baltic states. The often highlighted benefits of a prolonged growing season need to be balanced against the increasing risk of spring frost projected for southern Scandinavia and the Baltic region. The increased frost risks may carry substantial economic consequences.