Land-Use Multi-Scenario Simulation and Spatiotemporal Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on Wilderness Mapping: A Case Study of Pu’er City, Yunnan Province

Land-use change directly and indirectly affects regional carbon storage by reshaping the composition and function of terrestrial ecosystems, and understanding this process is important for guiding land-use strategies toward carbon neutrality. This study used wilderness mapping to assess wilderness quality in Pu’er City and integrated the FLUS–InVEST model to analyze spatiotemporal changes in land use and carbon storage from 2000 to 2020 and to simulate land-use and carbon-storage outcomes for 2030. Based on the wilderness-mapping results, the study area was divided into four wilderness-quality classes, and four scenarios were established: No Protection, Limited Protection, Moderate Protection, and Strict Protection. From 2000 to 2020, cropland and forestland decreased, whereas grassland, water bodies, and built-up land increased. Carbon storage first increased slightly and then declined, with an overall decrease of approximately 1.87 × 106 Mg C. Relative to the harmonized five-class 2020 FLUS baseline, the 2030 simulations showed a decline of approximately 1.46 × 106 Mg C under the No Protection scenario, whereas the Moderate Protection scenario produced an increase of approximately 0.21 × 106 Mg C. Under the baseline carbon-density parameters, the Moderate Protection scenario yielded the highest estimated total carbon storage among the four scenarios and resulted in a larger simulated built-up land area than the Strict Protection scenario. However, the relatively small difference in estimated total carbon storage between the Moderate and Strict Protection scenarios should be interpreted with consideration of carbon-density uncertainty.