The performance gap in wetland sustainability: a multicriteria assessment of Zrebar Wetland, Iran

Abstract Assessing the sustainability of stressed wetland ecosystems requires transitioning from reductionist paradigms to frameworks that structurally integrate heterogeneous ecological, socioeconomic, and institutional variables. To bridge the methodological divide between qualitative appraisals and quantitative modeling, this study develops a five-dimensional hierarchical framework and applies the Absolute Measurement Analytic Hierarchy Process to evaluate the sustainability of the Zrebar Wetland (a Ramsar site in Iran). Structured judgments elicited from an expert panel (n = 28) were transformed into normalized utility values within a [0, 1] interval to compute the Comprehensive Evaluation Index (CEI). Systemic architecture analysis reveals a hierarchy: at the macro level, the environmental dimension exerts the paramount strategic influence (W = 0.344), while at the micro level, 'land use change and regional development' operates as the most critical global indicator (W = 0.079). Despite these structural priorities, the empirical evaluation yielded a CEI of 0.367, placing the ecosystem strictly at the critical threshold of "unstable." The primary analytical contribution of this research lies in diagnosing a severe "performance gap": variables bearing the highest strategic weights (e.g., land use change, soil and sediment health) recorded the lowest empirical scores, with 66.7% of critical metrics falling into a highly unfavorable state. This structural paradox demonstrates that without cross-sectoral regulation and rigid developmental boundaries, localized social capacities remain inadequate to arrest hydro-geomorphological degradation. Ultimately, enhancing ecological sustainability requires a transition from centralized, fragmented management to a polycentric governance model.