Current trends in the development of the global gas market in conditions of increased volatility

The article examines the factors affecting natural gas price dynamics at the European TTF hub under conditions of increased volatility in the global liquefied natural gas market. The relevance of the study is determined by the growing interdependence of regional gas markets, the increasing role of LNG in ensuring Europe’s energy security, and the rising sensitivity of gas prices to geopolitical risks in key exporting regions. Particular attention is paid to the situation in 2026, associated with disruptions to LNG supply stability from the Persian Gulf region and growing uncertainty in the global gas market. The purpose of the study is to identify and statistically assess the significance of factors associated with TTF price dynamics during a crisis shock. The methodological basis of the research is time-series regression analysis. The dependent variable is the natural gas price at the TTF hub, while the explanatory variables include lost Qatari LNG volumes, global LNG supply, European and Chinese LNG imports, EU gas storage levels, Russian pipeline gas flows, and a crisis-period dummy variable. The multiple regression model demonstrates that the selected factors have strong explanatory power with respect to TTF price dynamics. The statistical significance of the model is confirmed by the coefficient of determination and the F-test results. The findings indicate that, under crisis conditions, European gas prices are determined not only by internal balance factors but also by the state of the global LNG market, competition between importing regions, and geopolitical uncertainty. The study concludes that LNG is increasingly acting as a key channel through which external shocks are transmitted to the European gas market.