Future crystalline silicon PV waste generation and secondary silicon availability in the European Union

The rapid expansion of photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the European Union (EU) is expected to result in a substantial increase in end-of-life (EoL) PV waste over the coming decades. This study estimates future crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV waste generation by considering PV deployment, c-Si market share, dynamic mass-to-power ratio, and Regular Loss (RL) and EU-WEEE scenarios. In addition, key factors associated with EoL PV management, including collection, reuse, recovery, and refining are incorporated into the estimation of EoL c-Si PV waste generation and secondary silicon recovery to minimize potential overestimation. According to the estimates, net cumulative EoL c-Si PV waste in the EU is projected to reach approximately 3.63 and 6.92 Mt by 2040, resulting in 71.4 and 125.8 kt of secondary silicon under the RL and EU-WEEE scenarios. This recovered silicon has the potential to support the manufacturing of a significant PV capacity in the upcoming years. A sensitivity analysis was performed using the EU-WEEE scenario estimates as the baseline. The results indicate that net cumulative EoL c-Si PV waste ranges from 5.6 to 8.3 Mt due to variations in Weibull parameters, collection efficiency, and reuse efficiency, while secondary silicon production ranges from 83.1 to 167 kt due to variations in recovery and refining yields. By integrating failure scenarios with key EoL management factors, this study presents a robust framework along with updating pathways for improving waste estimation accuracy and supporting more efficient waste management practices.