Evaluating Seasonal Fidelity and Cross-Site Structural Discrimination of Sentinel-2 LAI Products in Karst Forests

Leaf area index (LAI) is widely used to characterize foliage amount and seasonal canopy development, but it captures only selected aspects of forest structure and can be difficult to retrieve reliably in heterogeneous, multilayered stands. This study evaluates Sentinel-2-based LAI information across eight sites in the Slovenian Classical Karst encompassing post-disturbance regeneration and established forest stands in dolines and relatively level inter-doline terrain. Field effective LAI measured during six periods in 2021 was compared with six Sentinel-2 spectral variables, LAI derived using the Sentinel Application Platform (SNAP), and the Copernicus Land Monitoring Service High-Resolution LAI product. The analysis explicitly distinguished two dimensions of retrieval performance that are often conflated: seasonal fidelity within sites and preservation of structural differences among sites. Most satellite-derived variables and LAI products captured the broad phenological progression from canopy development to senescence. However, strong temporal agreement within sites did not consistently translate into preservation of the ordering or magnitude of structural differences among sites. Several methods compressed the range of high effective LAI values at dense regeneration sites with substantial lower-layer vegetation. The study therefore provides a more informative framework for evaluating LAI products by identifying which component of variation drives apparent agreement. These findings indicate that Sentinel-2 can support phenological monitoring and broad screening of post-disturbance vegetation development. However, quantitative comparisons of canopy density or structural recovery across heterogeneous stands require consideration of canopy heterogeneity, potential spectral saturation, and plot-to-pixel support. The evaluation framework and the observed retrieval limitations are relevant beyond karst forests, particularly to post-disturbance stands, fragmented forests, open woodlands, and sites with dense understory or regeneration layers.