Large‐Scale Extreme Precipitation Events Increasingly Drive River Discharge Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin

ABSTRACT Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) pose severe risks to society and the economy, and their spatial extent plays a critical role in shaping hydrological impacts. However, it remains unclear whether EPEs of different spatial extents have changed differently and how these changes affect hydrological extremes in the Yangtze River Basin. Here, we identify spatiotemporally contiguous EPEs in the Yangtze River Basin from 1960 to 2024 and classify them as small‐, medium‐, and large‐scale events. While small‐scale EPEs are the most numerous, they have declined significantly in relative frequency. In contrast, medium‐ and large‐scale EPEs have become increasingly common, with the latter becoming more intense. Despite accounting for only 1.1% of all events, large‐scale EPEs dominate annual maximum discharge across 23.3% of river reaches, and their contribution to discharge extremes has increased over time. Precipitation–temperature scaling further reveals that EPE intensity becomes more sensitive to warming as spatial extent increases, indicating a growing risk from widespread events in a warmer climate. These results highlight the spatial extent of EPEs as a key dimension for understanding changing precipitation extremes and basin‐wide flood risk under climate warming.

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Publication Details

Journal
International Journal of Climatology
Published
2026-08-20
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70563
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Large‐Scale Extreme Precipitation Events Increasingly Drive River Discharge Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin

Xiaomang Liu, Kaiwen Wang, Changming Liu, Zhengjie Yin et al.
International Journal of Climatology
Climate variability and models
article

Large‐Scale Extreme Precipitation Events Increasingly Drive River Discharge Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin

Xiaomang Liu, Kaiwen Wang, Changming Liu, Zhengjie Yin, Kang Liang, Yihui Zhang
article en

Abstract

ABSTRACT Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) pose severe risks to society and the economy, and their spatial extent plays a critical role in shaping hydrological impacts. However, it remains unclear whether EPEs of different spatial extents have changed differently and how these changes affect hydrological extremes in the Yangtze River Basin. Here, we identify spatiotemporally contiguous EPEs in the Yangtze River Basin from 1960 to 2024 and classify them as small‐, medium‐, and large‐scale events. While small‐scale EPEs are the most numerous, they have declined significantly in relative frequency. In contrast, medium‐ and large‐scale EPEs have become increasingly common, with the latter becoming more intense. Despite accounting for only 1.1% of all events, large‐scale EPEs dominate annual maximum discharge across 23.3% of river reaches, and their contribution to discharge extremes has increased over time. Precipitation–temperature scaling further reveals that EPE intensity becomes more sensitive to warming as spatial extent increases, indicating a growing risk from widespread events in a warmer climate. These results highlight the spatial extent of EPEs as a key dimension for understanding changing precipitation extremes and basin‐wide flood risk under climate warming.

International Journal of Climatology
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), Changjiang Water Resources Commission (CN), Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (CN), University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key Research and Development Program of China
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 11%
Climate variability and models
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Large‐Scale Extreme Precipitation Events Increasingly Drive River Discharge Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin — Xiaomang Liu, Kaiwen Wang, et al. · International Journal of Climatology (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS