Privatization of space: a winner-takes-all paradigm in the new space economy

Abstract The privatization of space is transforming the global space economy, shifting it from a state-led enterprise to a competitive, profit-driven arena. This paper investigates whether the increasing dominance of a few private actors—particularly SpaceX in space launches and its subsidiary Starlink in satellite-based communications—heralds a “winner-takes-all” paradigm in the New Space Economy. Through an in-depth longitudinal embedded case study, the paper analyzes how technological disruption, vertical integration, and first-mover advantages have enabled these firms to shape market dynamics and potentially entrench monopolistic or oligopolistic structures. Drawing on theoretical frameworks of market concentration and technological lock-in, the study reveals how infrastructural dominance can deter new entrants and influence regulatory processes. While SpaceX and Starlink have accelerated innovation and lowered entry costs for downstream services, their market power also raises critical concerns about sustainability, competition, and equitable access to space-based infrastructure. The findings call for a reassessment of regulatory and governance mechanisms to balance innovation incentives with fair market structures in the evolving space economy.