A Pure Data‐Driven Fully Distributed Model for Spatially Consistent Streamflow Prediction

Abstract Streamflow prediction is essential for water resources management and flood mitigation but remains challenging in large basins due to spatial heterogeneity. Machine learning (ML) models have been widely applied to streamflow prediction, typically relying on explicit routing modules, whereas the potential of pure ML models remains underexplored. This study presents a purely ML‐based model (Convolutional Entity‐Aware Long Short‐Term Memory) for fully distributed streamflow prediction. Spatial cross‐validation across 50 gauges in the Amazon Basin yields a median Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.73 and an R 2 of 0.84, comparable to or exceeding benchmark models with routing modules. The model reduces annual peak flow bias (APFB = 0.12) and accurately reproduced spatial autocorrelation patterns (Pearson's r > 0.6, Moran's I > 0.8, and Geary's C < 0.2), indicating spatially consistent grid‐scale discharge predictions. These findings demonstrate the potential of a pure data‐driven ML model for fully distributed streamflow prediction in ungauged basins while ensuring spatial consistency.

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Publication Details

Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Published
2026-08-20
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl122902
Primary Topic
Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

A Pure Data‐Driven Fully Distributed Model for Spatially Consistent Streamflow Prediction

Shuo Wang, Liguang Jiang, Jun Liu, Qiang Yu
Geophysical Research Letters
Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
article

A Pure Data‐Driven Fully Distributed Model for Spatially Consistent Streamflow Prediction

Shuo Wang, Liguang Jiang, Jun Liu, Qiang Yu
article en

Abstract

Abstract Streamflow prediction is essential for water resources management and flood mitigation but remains challenging in large basins due to spatial heterogeneity. Machine learning (ML) models have been widely applied to streamflow prediction, typically relying on explicit routing modules, whereas the potential of pure ML models remains underexplored. This study presents a purely ML‐based model (Convolutional Entity‐Aware Long Short‐Term Memory) for fully distributed streamflow prediction. Spatial cross‐validation across 50 gauges in the Amazon Basin yields a median Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.73 and an R 2 of 0.84, comparable to or exceeding benchmark models with routing modules. The model reduces annual peak flow bias (APFB = 0.12) and accurately reproduced spatial autocorrelation patterns (Pearson's r > 0.6, Moran's I > 0.8, and Geary's C < 0.2), indicating spatially consistent grid‐scale discharge predictions. These findings demonstrate the potential of a pure data‐driven ML model for fully distributed streamflow prediction in ungauged basins while ensuring spatial consistency.

Geophysical Research LettersVol. 53(16)
Hong Kong Polytechnic University (HK), Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (DK), Southern University of Science and Technology (CN)
National Key Research and Development Program of China
Clean water and sanitation
Openalex Percentile: Top 16%
Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
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