Logistics Convergence, Financial Development, and Trade Competitiveness: Nonlinear Evidence from Mediterranean Economies

This study investigates logistics convergence, financial development, and trade competitiveness in 19 Mediterranean countries over the period 2007–2022. Unlike previous studies that primarily examine average logistics performance across countries, this study contributes by combining convergence-club analysis, logistics inequality decomposition, and second-stage ordered-logit modelling to identify the structural characteristics associated with different logistics regimes across Mediterranean economies. Based on the Logistics Performance Index (LPI), we employ descriptive statistics, sigma-convergence analysis, the Phillips–Sul club convergence approach, relative transition paths, Theil decomposition of logistics inequality, and second-stage ordered-logit estimation. The full-panel Phillips–Sul test rejects the hypothesis of overall convergence, indicating that Mediterranean economies do not converge towards a common logistics-performance equilibrium. However, the club formation procedure identifies three statistically supported logistics convergence clubs, while Libya cannot be assigned to any convergence club. The transition-path analysis reveals three distinct logistics regimes corresponding to upper, middle, and lower convergence groups. The Theil decomposition indicates that the between-club component of logistics inequality becomes increasingly dominant after 2012 and accounts for most logistics inequality during the later years of the sample. Second-stage ordered-logit estimates indicate that GDP per capita, the rule of law, and economic complexity are positively associated with membership in higher logistics convergence clubs, whereas financial development does not emerge as a statistically significant direct predictor. Taken together, the findings suggest that financial development is associated with logistics convergence primarily through broader institutional and structural channels rather than emerging as an independently significant predictor in the ordered-logit analysis. Overall, the findings provide policy implications for promoting balanced logistics development and reducing structural disparities across Mediterranean economies.