When water runs dry: how irrigation water scarcity shapes smallholder farmers’ mitigation strategies and migration aspiration in developing countries

Abstract Irrigation water scarcity (IWS) presents a growing risk to agricultural production in arid and semi-arid regions, compounding smallholder farmers’ vulnerabilities to climate variability and resource constraints and threatening their crop yields and livelihoods. This study examines how perceptions of IWS influence intentions to adopt on-farm mitigation strategies and shape migration intentions among a sample of 501 Egyptian smallholder farmers. The results reveal considerable variation in perceived IWS severity across economic, agronomic, environmental, and social dimensions, reflecting uneven exposure, differences in resource access, and disparities in institutional support among farmers. In addition, perceived IWS severity significantly predicts intentions to adopt farm-level, low-cost adaptation measures, such as shifting cropping patterns and adopting water-efficient irrigation, yet has no direct effect on long-term capital investment decisions. Instead, institutional trust in water-management institutions emerges as the most consistent determinant of both operational farm-level and investment-oriented adaptation, while psychological distance to water scarcity shows no meaningful influence. The results further reveal a spectrum of migration intentions, ranging from strong preferences for in-situ adaptation to firm commitments to relocate, shaped by farmers’ resource availability, trust in water-governance institutions, and IWS risk assessments. Overall, the results imply that once water stress surpasses farmers’ coping thresholds and institutional confidence erodes, decision-making shifts from incremental adaptation to committed migration. These findings contribute a theory-informed framework for understanding smallholder decision-making under chronic water stress and offers actionable insights for strengthening rural livelihood resilience in water-scarce regions. Policy interventions should both enhance in-situ adaptive capacity through access to water-saving technologies, extension services, and tailored financial tools, and establish tiered migration-support systems that include livelihood-transition programs and social protection measures for those compelled to relocate.