Artificial intelligence based multimodal fusion of electronic medical record data and ECG signals for pericarditis prediction: pericarditis calculator (p-Cal) as a screening aid

Background Pericarditis may be associated with significant morbidity and mortality and can be a clinically challenging entity to diagnose. There is a clinical need for automated artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to act as a screening aid to assist with the early and accurate detection of pericarditis. Methods We developed p-Cal, a browser-based pericarditis risk calculator that fuses the patient clinical data and 12-lead ECG image to estimate risk for pericarditis. The ECG encoder was designed based on a pretrained MedCLIP Vision Transformer and random forest classifier was used for the clinical tabular data. These two modalities were fused at the decision-level using a meta classifier. Model reasoning for both modalities was assessed using advanced explainable AI techniques—attention maps from the transformer model were used to interpret ECG images, while SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) force plots were applied to analyse the tabular data. Results A total of 6508 patients (mean age 54.8±16.1 years, 50.9% female) were used for training and internal validation of the AI model, of whom 902 patients had a confirmed diagnosis of pericarditis (13.8%) and the remainder were normal controls. On 1302 hold-out test patients, the Fusion Model demonstrated the best discriminatory performance, achieving an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.89, which surpassed the ECG (AUC = 0.85) and the clinical data only models (AUC = 0.74) performance. On external validation in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) Database, the fusion model achieved an AUC of 0.81. Conclusion A late fusion AI model integrating tabular clinical electronic medical record data and ECG signal has robust predictive capability for pericarditis as a screening tool.