Riding to opportunity: subway opening and urban entrepreneurial activity in China

Purpose This paper aims to estimate the causal effect of subway opening on per-capita new firm registration in Chinese urban districts. Design/methodology/approach The author applies a staggered difference-in-differences design to 209 urban districts across 38 Chinese cities, 2006–2024, exploiting within-city variation in subway arrival. Findings Subway opening significantly raises per-capita new firm registration, confirmed by heterogeneity-robust estimators and placebo tests. Three operative channels are documented: demand-side market expansion and firm agglomeration; expanded public service amenity supply; and accelerated urban land development. Effects are concentrated in provincial capital cities, service-dominated cities, border districts and development zone districts. Originality/value This study provides district-level causal evidence, finer than existing city-level analyses, and documents three mechanisms through which transit investment shapes the entrepreneurial environment and competitive position of urban districts in China.