Labor force shifts in the Midwest during the pandemic: role of human capital and geography

Abstract The labor force participation rate (LFPR) in Midwestern counties declined from 2019 to 2021, following national trends but less sharply. Early in the pandemic, declines in LFPR were associated with reduced participation among older workers, in metro areas, and in counties highly vulnerable to the pandemic, while higher participation among Whites, female, and educated workers was associated with partially offsetting these losses. Metro areas with higher LFPR among individuals with children under age 6 and greater in-migration experienced smaller initial declines. By 2020–2021, patterns shifted: younger workers, manufacturing-dependent employment, and human capital were linked to sharper drops. Meanwhile, mid-career workers, educated labor, individuals with young children, and in-migration in metro areas helped moderate declines, highlighting complex regional and demographic dynamics.