Infectious disease burden and hospital service demand in Aktobe Region Kazakhstan

Abstract Background Long-term regional evidence on infectious disease burden in Kazakhstan remains limited. Routine surveillance data can provide useful insight for health-system planning, although such data reflect not only underlying disease occurrence but also patterns of detection, referral, admission, and reporting. This study examined ten-year trends in registered infectious disease cases and hospitalizations in Aktobe Region and provided cautious trend extrapolations to support medium-term planning. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis of aggregated annual surveillance data from the Regional Clinical Infectious Diseases Hospital of Aktobe Region for 2014–2024. Annual registered case counts, hospitalizations, and registered case rates per 1,000 population were described using standard time-series indicators and structural analysis. Category-specific structure was assessed for 2019–2024, the period for which disaggregated category-level data were available. Linear trend models were used as planning-oriented extrapolations for 2025–2029, with diagnostic and cross-validation results reported to support transparent interpretation. Results Registered infectious disease cases increased from 8,983 in 2014 to 18,891 in 2024, while hospitalizations rose from 4,959 to 9,005 over the same period. The registered case rate increased from 11.1 to 20.0 per 1,000 population. Trends were not linear and showed marked disruption around 2020, followed by a strong rebound in 2021–2023. In 2024, bacterial intestinal infections accounted for 26% of registered cases, viral infections for 22%, and acute upper respiratory tract infections for 20%; together these three groups represented 68% of cases, while the remaining 32% were distributed across more than 80 other diagnostic categories. For 2019–2024, viral infections showed the steepest relative increase among the major groups. Under a business-as-usual trend assumption, total registered cases were projected to reach 27,837 by 2029, although these extrapolations should be interpreted cautiously. Conclusions Routine regional surveillance data suggest a substantial increase in registered infectious disease burden and associated hospital demand in Aktobe Region over the past decade. The findings are most useful as an indicator of pressure on infectious disease services rather than as a measure of true incidence. Strengthening disaggregated reporting, laboratory-linked surveillance, vaccination recovery, and medium-term service planning may improve regional preparedness for future infectious disease demand.