MODEL ADOPTION #1123: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance FAR (>10deg) — improves win rate from 31.7% to — E8 Intelligence Research
DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: The +0.6pp win-rate improvement from a FAR >10deg filter is statistically fragile (n=669, delta within noise band for a 31.7% baseline). The "promising" verdict is inflated by a single avoided loss in a 5-trade sample. No concrete, testable edge compatible with E8 geometry timing is demonstrated—phase distance is a scalar, not a geometric phase-lock condition. The filter does not align with Gods-Clock rhythm logic; it is a blunt cutoff that risks rejecting high-reward outlier trades in trending regimes where phase distance naturally widens. EXPECTED IMPACT: Negligible to negative. +0.6pp is below the slippage/spread noise floor for eToro execution. Over 500 live trades, the filter would likely produce a net PnL loss due to missed winners in trending phases. No reduction in drawdown is guaranteed—phase distance can be high at reversal zones *and* at breakout continuations. RISK: The filter introduces a regime-dependent bias: it will reject trades during high Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-08-18
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21989312
- Primary Topic
- Seismology and Earthquake Studies
- Type
- preprint