How trade policies reshape food supply chain resilience: lessons from AMIS economies

Purpose Global food supply chains (FSCs) are increasingly exposed to systemic disruptions arising from geopolitical conflicts, climate variability and macroeconomic shocks. These disruptions highlight the growing importance of resilience for maintaining stable food availability and trade flows in highly interconnected global food systems. This study aims to investigate how key trade policy instruments, export restrictions, import barriers and market price support (MPS) influence the resilience of global FSCs. Design/methodology/approach The study uses a longitudinal mixed-method design combining panel econometric analysis with comparative policy case analysis. Panel data from 24 Agricultural Market Information System economies covering the period 2007–2023 are analyzed alongside policy responses observed during three major global disruptions: the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. Resilience is conceptualized through three capacities, absorptive, adaptive and recovery, which are empirically linked to specific trade policy instruments. Findings The results reveal a resilience paradox in global FSCs. Export restrictions reduce short-term domestic volatility but weaken global adaptive capacity. Import barriers delay recovery, particularly in import-dependent economies. Market price support measures improve recovery capacity but may generate longer-term distortions in international markets. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature by linking specific trade policy instruments to distinct resilience capacities across multiple crises and commodities. The findings also highlight the need for greater global alignment of trade policies to prevent domestic stabilization measures from undermining the resilience of the broader food system.