Carbon lock-in due to policy myopia: The influence of political elites and interest groups on Pakistan's energy governance

Over the past three decades, Pakistan's energy policy has largely prioritized carbon-intensive, utility-scale power plants through private sector investment, contributing to persistent carbon lock-in. What has led to this carbon-intensive pathway in the country's energy governance? We argue that this lock-in was initially driven by policy myopia manifested in short-term, crisis-driven decision-making, and further reinforced by interest group politics and institutional dynamics. Drawing on theories of distributive climate politics, we conducted qualitative content analysis of policy documents, regulatory reports, media sources, and academic literature to trace power dynamics and policy choices in Pakistan's energy sector since the 1990s. Our findings reveal that successive governments adopted short-term strategies favoring quick fixes over structural reforms, while interest group influence and institutional constraints reinforced a carbon-intensive pathway rather than enabling a sustainable energy transition. The recent rapid expansion of distributed solar energy systems reflects bottom-up responses to this state-led inertia in energy governance. By conceptualizing policy myopia as a politically embedded causal mechanism, the study contributes to debates on carbon lock-in and climate politics in the Global South and underscores the need to realign political and institutional incentives with long-term energy transition goals.