Trends in breast cancer incidence in Ethiopia, 2012–2022: a population-based study from a resource-limited setting

Abstract Background Cancer is uncontrolled abnormal cell growth. In 2022, an estimated 19.3 million new cancer diagnoses and 10 million cancer deaths were recorded globally. Breast cancer is among the leading cancers that result in death in Ethiopia. This study analyzed trends in breast cancer incidence in Ethiopia. Methods Data were extracted from the Addis Ababa population based cancer registry. Of the 28,108 registered cancer patients, 7,160 were breast cancer cases. Crude, age-standardized incidence rate (ASR), annual percentage change (APC), and the Mann-Kendall trend test were utilized using R and Joinpoint regression software. Results Breast cancer accounted for more than 25% of all cancers between 2012 and 2022. While the overall trend in incidence was not statistically significant, large fluctuations were observed. Incidence was highest in 2022 and in 2016 for the crude rate and ASR, respectively. Among females, breast cancer incidence increased non-significantly until 2016 (APC = 2.8), after which it showed a non-significant decline or remained relatively stable (APC = -0.7). In males, the incidence demonstrated a non-significant increasing trend till 2020 (APC = 6.5), followed by a non-significant decline thereafter (APC = -6.09). Overall, the APC was 0.43 among females and 4.48 among males . Conclusion Breast cancer accounts for one-fourth of all cancers diagnosed. While overall trends in incidence are statistically not significant, segmented analysis indicates non-significant over all trends with observed temporal fluctuations identified in segmented analyses, with a joinpoint detected in 2016 for females and 2020 for males. These findings emphasize the need for more breast cancer control, and public health education programs.