Land use and land cover change analysis in the Asabla Watershed, Northern Ethiopian highlands, using remote sensing data (1986–2020)

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes strongly influence environmental sustainability, agricultural productivity, and rural livelihoods. This study aimed to assess long-term LULC dynamics in the Asabla Watershed, Northwestern Ethiopia, over 34 years (1986–2020), identify the main drivers of change, and evaluate implications for sustainable land management. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery (1986: Landsat 5 TM; 2001: Landsat 7 ETM + ; 2020: Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS) was analyzed using GIS and the Maximum Likelihood supervised classification algorithm. Preprocessing included atmospheric and geometric corrections, layer stacking, and gap filling. Ground truthing incorporated field surveys, GPS points, local interviews, and high-resolution Google Earth imagery. Classification accuracy was assessed using overall accuracy and Kappa statistics. LULC changes were quantified with percent change relative to baseline extents, annual rates of change, and transition matrix analysis. Cultivated land increased by 21.83 ha (2.7% of its 1986 baseline), driven by agricultural intensification, market expansion, and government resettlement programs. Settlement areas grew by 32.53 ha (4.0%), while grazing lands declined by 90.13 ha (11.1%), primarily converted to cropland, settlements, and plantations. Forest cover increased by 35.77 ha (4.4%), mainly through eucalyptus plantations rather than natural forest recovery. Transition matrix analysis identified grazing land as the main source of conversion. These changes highlight trade-offs between human livelihoods and ecosystem services. Expansion of agriculture and settlements reduced grazing resources and increased soil degradation, whereas forest growth contributed to soil and water conservation, biodiversity support, and livelihood benefits through timber and fuel wood provision. The 34-year LULC dynamics reflect the tension between development needs and environmental sustainability. Agricultural and settlement expansion addresses immediate livelihood demands but threatens soil health and grazing resources, while forest expansion provides ecological and economic benefits. Integrated watershed management strategies are essential, including sustainable agriculture, regulated grazing, and community-driven reforestation. These measures can mitigate land degradation, maintain ecosystem services, strengthen rural livelihoods, and serve as guidance for other watersheds experiencing similar pressures from population growth, agricultural expansion, and land management interventions.