LAB #1115 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.7% to 35.4% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.7% to 35.4% (+3.7pp, n=393) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current trade window, applying a phase distance filter of ≤2° would have rejected several trades that were already closed as wins or losses. Specifically, the EURUSD SHORT (loss), USDCAD LONG (win), GBPUSD SHORT (win), USDCHF SHORT (win), and AUDUSD SHORT (rejected) would likely have been filtered out if their phase distances exceeded 2°, potentially removing both profitable and losing trades. The net effect is ambiguous — you might have avoided the EURUSD loss but also missed the USDCAD and GBPUSD wins, so the win-rate impact in this small sample is uncertain, likely neutral to slightly negative depending on exact phase distances. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, a tight phase filter (≤2°) is expected to reduce trade frequency significantly, which could improve win rate by avoidi Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-08-18
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21989213
Primary Topic
Military Defense Systems Analysis
Type
preprint
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LAB #1115 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.7% to 35.4% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Military Defense Systems Analysis
preprint

LAB #1115 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.7% to 35.4% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.7% to 35.4% (+3.7pp, n=393) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current trade window, applying a phase distance filter of ≤2° would have rejected several trades that were already closed as wins or losses. Specifically, the EURUSD SHORT (loss), USDCAD LONG (win), GBPUSD SHORT (win), USDCHF SHORT (win), and AUDUSD SHORT (rejected) would likely have been filtered out if their phase distances exceeded 2°, potentially removing both profitable and losing trades. The net effect is ambiguous — you might have avoided the EURUSD loss but also missed the USDCAD and GBPUSD wins, so the win-rate impact in this small sample is uncertain, likely neutral to slightly negative depending on exact phase distances. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, a tight phase filter (≤2°) is expected to reduce trade frequency significantly, which could improve win rate by avoidi Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Military Defense Systems Analysis
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