LAB #1143 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.7% to 41.3% (+9.6pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.7% to 41.3% (+9.6pp, n=334) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current live trade window, applying a min confirmations >= 6 filter would have rejected the EURUSD SHORT via rizzy5m (entry 1.13594, currently CLOSED but status unclear) and likely the NZDUSD LONG via wkjudas (entry 0.57702, REJECTED). The two confirmed wins (USDCAD LONG, GBPUSD SHORT) both came from rizzy7m signals, which typically generate higher confirmation counts, so they would likely survive the filter. The net effect would be a reduction in total trades from 10 to roughly 6-7, with the win rate improving from the observed ~40% (4 wins out of 10) to potentially 50-57% (4 wins out of 6-7), but total PnL might drop slightly due to fewer opportunities. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the +9.6pp win rate improvement from backtesting suggests this filter effectively kills low-convictio Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-08-18
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21989533
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #1143 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.7% to 41.3% (+9.6pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #1143 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.7% to 41.3% (+9.6pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.7% to 41.3% (+9.6pp, n=334) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current live trade window, applying a min confirmations >= 6 filter would have rejected the EURUSD SHORT via rizzy5m (entry 1.13594, currently CLOSED but status unclear) and likely the NZDUSD LONG via wkjudas (entry 0.57702, REJECTED). The two confirmed wins (USDCAD LONG, GBPUSD SHORT) both came from rizzy7m signals, which typically generate higher confirmation counts, so they would likely survive the filter. The net effect would be a reduction in total trades from 10 to roughly 6-7, with the win rate improving from the observed ~40% (4 wins out of 10) to potentially 50-57% (4 wins out of 6-7), but total PnL might drop slightly due to fewer opportunities. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the +9.6pp win rate improvement from backtesting suggests this filter effectively kills low-convictio Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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LAB #1143 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.7% to 41.3% (+9.6pp, — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS