Disease Burden Attributable to Six Occupational Risk Factors in China, 1990–2035: A Quantitative Assessment and Future Projection

Objective: To evaluate the temporal trends and future burden of six occupational risk factors in China from 1990 to 2035. Methods: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Age-standardized rates, age-period-cohort analysis, and Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to assess trends and project disease burden. Results: In 2021, six occupational risk factors accounted for 17.90 million disability-adjusted life years in China. The age-standardized rate declined by 58.8%, from 2,362.18 in 1990 to 974.00 per 100,000 population in 2021. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, low back pain, and age-related and other hearing loss accounted for 59.5% of the burden. Age-standardized rates attributable to occupational asthmagens and carcinogens were projected to increase through 2035, particularly among women. Conclusions: Although China has substantially reduced occupational disease burden, chronic conditions and vulnerable populations require greater attention through targeted strategies.