LAB #1116 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.7% to 33.3 — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.7% to 33.3% (+1.6pp, n=156) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current trade window, applying a phase distance filter of 5-10deg would have rejected several trades that fell outside this range, potentially avoiding the EURUSD SHORT loss (entry 1.13704) and possibly the USDCAD LONG win (entry 1.40711) depending on their phase distances at entry. The net effect is ambiguous: avoiding one loss is beneficial, but losing a win reduces overall PnL. Given the small sample (n=156 in backtest), the +1.6pp win rate improvement may not translate to a clear PnL gain in this specific window, as the filter's impact on individual trades is mixed. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, a moderate phase distance filter (5-10deg) could yield a modest win rate improvement of ~1-2pp, but the small sample size (n=156) and marginal gain (+1.6pp) suggest high varianc Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-08-18
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21989217
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #1116 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.7% to 33.3 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #1116 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.7% to 33.3 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.7% to 33.3% (+1.6pp, n=156) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current trade window, applying a phase distance filter of 5-10deg would have rejected several trades that fell outside this range, potentially avoiding the EURUSD SHORT loss (entry 1.13704) and possibly the USDCAD LONG win (entry 1.40711) depending on their phase distances at entry. The net effect is ambiguous: avoiding one loss is beneficial, but losing a win reduces overall PnL. Given the small sample (n=156 in backtest), the +1.6pp win rate improvement may not translate to a clear PnL gain in this specific window, as the filter's impact on individual trades is mixed. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, a moderate phase distance filter (5-10deg) could yield a modest win rate improvement of ~1-2pp, but the small sample size (n=156) and marginal gain (+1.6pp) suggest high varianc Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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LAB #1116 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.7% to 33.3 — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS