Improved maize seeds and farm profitability in Tanzania: Evidence from the National Sample Census of Agriculture 2019/20

Abstract Background: Maize plays a critical role in ensuring food security and supporting rural livelihoods in Tanzania. However, smallholder maize farmers continue to face persistent profitability challenges driven by low productivity, high input costs, and market inefficiencies. Although the government has prioritized promoting improved seed varieties across various agricultural development initiatives, evidence of their actual economic benefits in smallholder farming conditions remains limited. Understanding how different seed types affect farm profitability across agroecological zones is essential for informing sustainable agricultural policy and investment decisions. Methods : This study used a non-parametric stochastic simulation approach with nationally representative data from the 2019/20 National Sample Census of Agriculture (NSCA). The analysis estimated income distributions for three seed types (local, improved, and recycled) while accounting for yield variability, maize prices, and production costs. Profitability was assessed using two income thresholds: a minimum threshold of TZS 0.6 million/ha and an optimal benchmark of TZS 1.2 million/ha. Simulations were disaggregated by agroecological zone to capture spatial differences in cost structures, productivity, and market dynamics. Results : The findings indicate that improved seeds modestly increase the probability of achieving profitable outcomes but, on their own, are insufficient to lift most farmers above the optimal income threshold. Nationally, 64% of improved seed users earned below the minimum profitability level, compared with 67% of local seed users and 77% of recycled seed users. Only 14% of improved seed users exceeded the profitability benchmark. Regional variations were substantial: the Lake and Southern Zones recorded relatively better profitability due to lower input costs and favorable maize prices, while the Eastern and Western Zones remained largely unprofitable across all seed categories. Conclusion : Although improved seeds are essential for enhancing maize productivity, they do not guarantee profitability in the absence of complementary inputs and supportive market conditions. Multiple interacting factors, including production costs, yield variability, and market access, shape profit outcomes. The study recommends integrated, zone-specific interventions, including bundled input support, targeted subsidies, and investment in rural infrastructure, to improve farm-level returns. These insights contribute to SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), and SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) by promoting more resilient and inclusive agricultural systems in Tanzania.