Estimates of Vulnerability to Poverty in Disaster Prone Rural Areas of Pakistan

ABSTRACT Climate‐induced disasters increasingly threaten rural livelihoods in developing countries, yet conventional poverty measures may underestimate the scale of economic insecurity. This study examines poverty vulnerability in disaster‐prone rural areas of Pakistan's Sindh province, where agricultural dependence and climate exposure create severe economic fragility. Using primary household data, we distinguish between current poverty status and future poverty risk, a critical differentiation for effective policy intervention. Our findings reveal a stark disconnect between observed and potential poverty. While 81% of households are currently poor, 94% face vulnerability to poverty, indicating widespread economic precariousness even among the non‐poor. Notably, 79% of currently non‐poor households remain vulnerable to falling into poverty. Spatial analysis shows significant geographic variation: Thatta district has the lowest vulnerability, while Tharparkar has the highest risk. These results challenge poverty measurement paradigms that rely solely on headcount ratios, which fail to capture households teetering on the poverty threshold. Traditional anti‐poverty programs targeting only the currently poor would exclude nearly four‐fifths of vulnerable non‐poor households, potentially allowing preventable poverty transitions. This research contributes methodologically by operationalizing vulnerability assessment in climate‐affected areas and by demonstrating that poverty alleviation strategies must shift from reactive identification to proactive risk mitigation, particularly in climate‐vulnerable agricultural economies.