Material footprint of warfare: a systematic framework and empirical analysis

Abstract Modern warfare generates enormous but mostly unquantified material and energy flows, yet no standardised method exists to measure its material footprint. This study develops a standardised and structured Material Flow Analysis (MFA) framework to quantify the war-exclusive material footprint, specifically focusing on material use in modern warfare. Building on principles of army doctrine and NATO supply classification, the framework identifies relevant material classes, including fuels, fortification materials, ammunition, repair parts, and medical waste, and categorises them by functional military platforms within the air, ground, naval and defensive domains. The model operationalises these flows through a quartile-based intensity approach, parameterised with industry-relevant proxies and assumptions, and finally tested with data from two case studies: the Russia-Ukraine War (2022) and Operation Desert Storm (1991). Results show that warfare operates at an industrial scale: Within a two-month window, total CO 2 emissions reach approximately 6 Mt for the Russia-Ukraine War and 28 Mt for Desert Storm, equalling the monthly emissions of Denmark and the Dutch industrial sector, respectively. In mass terms, the model indicates 8–10 Mt of fuels and ammunition are mobilised over two months, comparable to the global monthly cement trade or Sweden’s steel output. Fuel accounts for 70–80% of the mass flow. Ammunition dominates the remainder, while fortification materials add merely hundreds of kilotons. By capturing only the active warfare component, the study shows that 126 Mt CO 2 is emitted in the first three years of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The framework provides a reproducible foundation for quantifying the environmental consequences of warfare.