Seasonal Risk of Animal Plague in the <i>Meriones unguiculatus</i> Plague foci-focus and Influencing Factors

Background: Due to successive human infections and the extremely active animal epidemics in recent years, Meriones unguiculatus plague focus have become one of the most risky plague foci in China. A refined risk prediction for the M. unguiculatus plague foci is therefore very important for prevention and control. Methods: This study compiles data on infected animals and vectors within the plague foci-focus through literature review, employs maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate seasonal variations in animal plague risk, and analyzes the influence of environmental factors on plague epidemic risk in different seasons. Results: During spring and summer, high-risk zones were predominantly clustered in the western Ordos desert steppe region. In autumn, areas of high and extremely high risk significantly increased in the eastern dry steppe and central desert steppe zones, and the overall risk zones decreased substantially in winter. Conclusions: Seasonal plague epidemics in the M. unguiculatus plague focus were primarily associated with climate and land use patterns, in particular maximum precipitation, daily temperature variation, total edge of dryland field and land use, while fixed natural conditions such as vegetation, topography, and soil exerted a relatively minor influence. Specific climatic and land use factors extracted in this study can be used for plague early warning and risk prevention in different seasons.