Between Individual Belief and National Context: Relative Positioning and Expectations of Collective Climate Action in Europe

Expectations regarding collective climate action are multidimensional and should be understood in relation to the social contexts in which they are embedded. This study examines whether these expectations are associated with the country-level average belief in the anthropogenic origin of climate change and with individuals’ deviation from that average. Drawing on Round 10 of the European Social Survey, the analysis utilizes 24,014 valid cases from 29 European countries. It estimates Complex Samples General Linear Models (CSGLM) to account for the complex sampling design. The results show that the country-level average belief in the anthropogenic origin of climate change is positively associated with expectations of collective climate action; that is, countries with a higher average belief exhibit higher expectations of collective climate action. Conversely, individuals whose belief in the anthropogenic origin of climate change exceeds the respective country-level average tend to express lower expectations of collective climate action. This negative association becomes stronger at higher levels of climate worry and is attenuated as ideological positioning moves towards the right; in contrast, trust in scientists does not have a significant moderating effect. Overall, the findings support a socially contextualized understanding of expectations of collective climate action, in which both national belief contexts and individuals’ relative positioning within those contexts are relevant.