Addressing the governance dilemma of urban low value waste under misalignment

Municipal solid waste (MSW) governance has attracted growing global attention. However, low-value waste (LVW) remains a critical bottleneck undermining system-wide performance. Drawing on theories of policy–technology–management alignment and urban environmental governance, this study conceptualizes LVW governance failure as a problem of structural misalignment and develops a comprehensive evaluation framework to assess governance performance under this perspective. An integrated analytical approach combining Delphi, the Best–Worst Method (BWM), Radial Basis Function neural network (RBFNN), and Importance–Performance Analysis (IPA) is applied to data from 222 Chinese cities. Robustness checks, including 5-fold cross-validation and sensitivity analysis of benchmark treatment intervals, support the stability of the model results. The results identify eight key determinants with a disproportionate influence on LVW governance effectiveness, including Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) Coverage Rate by Product Category, Technological Investment Level, and Recyclable Resources Revenue Differential. Comparative case analyses of three cities exhibiting marked discrepancies between composite rankings and observed governance outcomes reveal that mismatches among policy incentives, technological capacity, and managerial implementation constrain LVW performance. Based on these findings, the study proposes targeted, city-specific management strategies to optimize critical governance factors. This work contributes to understanding “waste-free city” governance by demonstrating how misalignment dynamics shape LVW outcomes and provides an empirically grounded pathway for integrating cross-domain analytical methods to address complex urban sustainability challenges. The findings support more precise, cost-effective, and integrated governance of LVW within MSW systems.