Right and left in elections around the world during the 21st century

This essay examines the relative weight of right-wing and left-wing political parties worldwide during the 21st century to determine whether significant structural changes occurred between the first (2000–2009) and second (2010–2019) decades. The study conducts a cross-national, cross-temporal empirical analysis using the Varieties of Democracy (V-Party, v2) database. The sample comprises electoral results (votes, seats, and government participation) from 174 nations, generating a dataset of 3,930 cases classified into six ideological categories based on an economic left-right axis. Methodological verification is supported by linear correlation coefficients, binary logistic regression models, and a machine learning classification tree. The data confirms the primary hypothesis of continuity: no statistically significant aggregate changes in the distribution of parties, votes, and seats were found between the two decades. Right-wing parties consistently maintained a dominant global presence, capturing approximately three out of five votes and seats during the second decade. Left-wing parties demonstrated a lower propensity to form governing coalitions, with far-left organizations experiencing a decline in government participation during the 2010s, while the far right increased its integration into post-electoral governments. The logistic regression and classification tree models reveal that while openness to political pluralism is the main factor positively associated with a right-wing stance, left-wing identity is multi-faceted, heavily linked to universalist welfare policies, social equity, tolerance toward immigration, and a strong convergence with populist discourse. The findings suggest that contemporary political analysis requires a dual framework integrating both the traditional economic left-right axis and the populism-elitism dimension.