Separating Probabilistic Inference from Deterministic Governance in Cyber Risk Automation

Risk registers remain static governance artefacts, manually maintained and weakly coupled to operational evidence. While organisations generate continuous security telemetry from vulnerability scanners, incident reports, and audit findings, this evidence is rarely synthesised into coherent, evolving risk structures. Existing approaches address fragments of the problem: SIEM systems correlate events but do not construct risk registers; GRC platforms manage risk documentation but depend on manual entry; and LLM applications assist with summarisation but introduce non-determinism incompatible with governance requirements. This paper presents a hybrid architecture that separates stochastic LLM-based extraction from deterministic risk correlation and aggregation. The system ingests heterogeneous evidence, extracts structured claims via schema-bounded LLM processing, and correlates events into stable risk trees using anchor-based tiered matching. All correlation and projection operations are deterministic and replayable. The contribution is an architectural design pattern for integrating probabilistic inference into governance systems without compromising auditability. The walkthroughs run on a reference prototype. Replaying the stored evidence three times rebuilt the same register state, and admission scores matched the values the rules predict. An injected malformed extraction was quarantined; the register did not change.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Cybersecurity and Privacy
Published
2026-08-17
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/jcp6040138
Primary Topic
Information and Cyber Security
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

Separating Probabilistic Inference from Deterministic Governance in Cyber Risk Automation

Alexios Mylonas, Tope Olufon, Stilianos Vidalis, Deepthi Ratnayake et al.
Journal of Cybersecurity and Privacy
Information and Cyber Security
article

Separating Probabilistic Inference from Deterministic Governance in Cyber Risk Automation

Alexios Mylonas, Tope Olufon, Stilianos Vidalis, Deepthi Ratnayake, Muyiwa Olufon
article en

Abstract

Risk registers remain static governance artefacts, manually maintained and weakly coupled to operational evidence. While organisations generate continuous security telemetry from vulnerability scanners, incident reports, and audit findings, this evidence is rarely synthesised into coherent, evolving risk structures. Existing approaches address fragments of the problem: SIEM systems correlate events but do not construct risk registers; GRC platforms manage risk documentation but depend on manual entry; and LLM applications assist with summarisation but introduce non-determinism incompatible with governance requirements. This paper presents a hybrid architecture that separates stochastic LLM-based extraction from deterministic risk correlation and aggregation. The system ingests heterogeneous evidence, extracts structured claims via schema-bounded LLM processing, and correlates events into stable risk trees using anchor-based tiered matching. All correlation and projection operations are deterministic and replayable. The contribution is an architectural design pattern for integrating probabilistic inference into governance systems without compromising auditability. The walkthroughs run on a reference prototype. Replaying the stored evidence three times rebuilt the same register state, and admission scores matched the values the rules predict. An injected malformed extraction was quarantined; the register did not change.

Journal of Cybersecurity and PrivacyVol. 6(4)
University of Hertfordshire (GB), Rotterdam University of Applied Sciences (NL)
Peace, Justice and strong institutions
Openalex Percentile: Top 3%
Information and Cyber Security
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.