Fatal Cardiogenic Shock in Patients with Heart Failure: National Mortality Trends, Forecasting, and the Influence of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in the United States in 1999–2023

Background: Atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD) remains a leading cause of global mortality and a major driver of fatal cardiac syndromes. Ischemic myocardial injury from AHD can lead to ventricular remodeling and myocyte loss, progressing to heart failure (HF) and, in advanced stages, cardiogenic shock (CS). However, long-term national mortality trends for deaths involving the combined burden of AHD, HF, and CS remain insufficiently characterized. Methods: Mortality data from 1999 to 2023 were obtained from the CDC WONDER Multiple Cause of Death database. Deaths involving CS (ICD-10 R57.0), HF (I50, I50.1, I50.9), and AHD (I25.1) in adults were identified. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 1,000,000 population were calculated and stratified by sex, race/ethnicity, and geographic region. Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression to estimate annual percent changes (APCs) and average annual percent changes (AAPCs). Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling was used to forecast mortality trends through 2035. Results: A total of 15,631 deaths were attributed to AHD-associated HF and CS during the study period. Overall AAMRs increased significantly (AAPC 3.75%; 95% CI 3.32–4.29; p < 0.01). Mortality rates declined between 1999 and 2006 (APC −7.55%; 95% CI −13.15 to −5.23; p < 0.01), increased modestly from 2006 to 2013 (APC 3.94%; 95% CI −1.47 to 8.91), and rose sharply from 2013 to 2023 (APC 12.33%; 95% CI 11.27–14.46; p < 0.01). Males had higher AAMRs than females in 2023 (9.26 vs. 3.39 per 1,000,000). Non-Hispanic White individuals accounted for the highest number of deaths (11,878), followed by non-Hispanic Black individuals (1708), while non-Hispanic American Indian populations had the lowest counts (39). Regionally, the West (7.31) and South (5.92) exhibited the highest final AAMRs. State-level AAMRs ranged from 2.49 in Minnesota to 8.27 in Nevada. Conclusions: Mortality involving AHD, HF, and CS has risen substantially in the United States since 2013, with marked demographic and geographic disparities. These findings highlight a growing burden of advanced ischemic heart disease and heart failure and underscore the need for earlier intervention and improved access to advanced HF therapies to prevent progression to cardiogenic shock and death.