Spatiotemporal evolution and configurational pathways of the three dimensional carbon footprint in resource based cities of northeast China

Low-carbon transition is essential for resource-based cities seeking to reduce Resource dependence and alleviate ecological pressures. However, existing research rarely integrates multidimensional assessments of carbon ecological conditions with configurational explanations of transition pathways. To address this gap, this study examines 21 resource-based cities in northeast China from 2013 to 2022. It develops an analytical framework that combines three-dimensional carbon footprint measurement, the technology–organization–environment (TOE) framework, and configurational pathway identification. Based on carbon source and carbon sink data, the study calculates the carbon footprint, carbon ecological carrying capacity, carbon ecological surplus, and carbon footprint size and depth. The fsQCA is then employed to identify multiple pathways for improving the carbon ecological balance. The results show that the overall carbon footprint of resource-based cities in northeast China declined during the study period, while their carbon ecological carrying capacity increased. Consequently, the regional carbon ecological balance continued to improve. Carbon footprint size exhibited a general contraction, whereas carbon footprint depth remained highly heterogeneous across cities. Forest cities possessed stronger ecological absorption capacity. By contrast, coal, oil, and metallurgical cities faced greater emission pressures and more severe natural capital depletion. The configurational analysis indicates that no single condition is necessary for achieving a high level of carbon ecological surplus. Based on the TOE framework, five pathways to high carbon ecological surplus are identified and grouped into four types. The analysis also identifies two types of pathways leading to the absence of high carbon ecological surplus, highlighting the coexistence of multiple causal mechanisms. These findings help urban managers understand the diversity and context dependence of carbon ecological improvement pathways in resource-based cities. They also provide a basis for developing differentiated low-carbon transition strategies.