Momentum Decoupling Drives Low‐Wind Events During Heatwaves in China: A Hybrid Explainable Machine Learning and Dynamical Modeling Approach

Abstract Compound heatwave and low‐wind (HW‐LW) events increasingly threaten China's energy security. Analysis of 2000–2023 data reveals these compound extremes account for 18.5% of total heatwaves, with their annual frequencies nearly doubling in recent years. Integrating explainable machine learning with dynamical simulations, we identify momentum decoupling as the primary physical driver of this wind suppression. During the HW‐LW events, adiabatic subsidence controlled by high‐pressure systems warms the upper atmosphere by over 3.0°C. This forms a stable temperature inversion layer that blocks downward kinetic energy transport. Consequently, this suppresses boundary layer development and causes surface wind speeds to drop by up to 4.0 m/s. These results demonstrate that HW‐LW compound events intrinsically starve the surface of wind energy supply. This highlights critical vulnerabilities in power grid systems as such compound extremes intensify globally.

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Publication Details

Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Published
2026-08-17
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl123286
Primary Topic
Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Momentum Decoupling Drives Low‐Wind Events During Heatwaves in China: A Hybrid Explainable Machine Learning and Dynamical Modeling Approach

Xuemei Wang, Tianshun Yang, Liqing Wu, Yihao Liang et al.
Geophysical Research Letters
Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
article

Momentum Decoupling Drives Low‐Wind Events During Heatwaves in China: A Hybrid Explainable Machine Learning and Dynamical Modeling Approach

Xuemei Wang, Tianshun Yang, Liqing Wu, Yihao Liang, Min Shao
article en

Abstract

Abstract Compound heatwave and low‐wind (HW‐LW) events increasingly threaten China's energy security. Analysis of 2000–2023 data reveals these compound extremes account for 18.5% of total heatwaves, with their annual frequencies nearly doubling in recent years. Integrating explainable machine learning with dynamical simulations, we identify momentum decoupling as the primary physical driver of this wind suppression. During the HW‐LW events, adiabatic subsidence controlled by high‐pressure systems warms the upper atmosphere by over 3.0°C. This forms a stable temperature inversion layer that blocks downward kinetic energy transport. Consequently, this suppresses boundary layer development and causes surface wind speeds to drop by up to 4.0 m/s. These results demonstrate that HW‐LW compound events intrinsically starve the surface of wind energy supply. This highlights critical vulnerabilities in power grid systems as such compound extremes intensify globally.

Geophysical Research LettersVol. 53(16)
Guangdong-Hongkong-Macau Joint Laboratory of Collaborative Innovation for Environmental Quality (CN), Guangdong Ocean University (CN)
Science Fund for Creative Research Groups
Affordable and clean energy
Openalex Percentile: Top 13%
Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
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