An Evidence-Based and Factor-Driven Land Valuation Model for Residential Areas: The Case of Sagar, India

Abstract Urban development pressures in India have intensified the need for transparent and reliable land valuation systems. This study presents an evidence-based valuation model tailored for rapidly urbanizing and data-scarce cities. Seven key development attributes were identified through literature review and stakeholder consultation, integrating social and spatial dimensions of land desirability. The simple additive weighting method was applied to derive a composite land value score, which was further adjusted through a projection formula incorporating a base year land value and a temporal decay factor to estimate realistic prices. The model was applied to Sagar city, India, where official circle rates underestimated land prices by over 206%. In contrast, model-estimated values deviated only ±11% from stakeholder-reported market rates, revealing potential annual fiscal losses of ₹54 lakhs due to undervaluation. A two-stage sensitivity analysis confirmed the model’s internal robustness. The proposed approach offers a transparent, participatory, and transferable valuation tool suitable for similar urban contexts across the Global South.