Anthropogenic Global Warming, Natural Resources, and Conflict

Global warming is potentially a new source of political instability and conflict. Food insecurity, geopolitical competition, and the weaponization of natural resources are a few problems linked to climate change. In fact, the United States’ Pentagon has described climate change as a “threat multiplier.” Additionally, climate change is causing weather systems to warm faster in countries with the lowest Gross Domestic Product (GDP)—with the exception of Australia—which also tend to have weaker democratic institutions and limited governance capacity. In short, we observe a cascade of effects linked to climate change: a series of disasters that overlap, combine forces, and amplify. In this interdisciplinary study, which draws from the physical and social sciences, we examine the impact of natural resources, governance, and climate on internal conflict. Using longitudinal data built from several reputable public data sources and across the years 1995–2018, we analyze whether climate amplifies the effects of threatened natural resources on internal conflict, also contingent on the governance capacity of N = 176 nation-states. Results suggest that governance continues to be key in understanding how natural resources influence conflict, with climate emerging as another important factor. Implications of this research are discussed.