The Aggregate Success Rate in Repeated Restricted Geometric Experiments: Expectation, Monotonicity, and Convergence

We consider m independent sequences of Bernoulli trials with success probability p, each terminated at its first success or after n trials, whichever occurs first. Let Xm,n,p denote the proportion of successes among all trials performed across the m components. We derive a unified integral representation for E(Xm,n,p) that covers both finite cutoffs and the unrestricted case n = ∞. For every m ≥ 1, n ∈ {2, 3, ...} ∪ {∞}, and 0 < p < 1, we prove that E(Xm,n,p) > p. For each such n and p, the sequence m ↦ E(Xm,n,p) is strictly decreasing and strictly convex in the discrete sense. We also establish almost-sure convergence of Xm,n,p to p and convergence of E(Xm,n,p) to p as m → ∞. Finally, for fixed m ≥ 1 and n ∈ {1, 2, ...} ∪ {∞}, E(Xm,n,p) is strictly increasing in p. These results describe the expectation and structural behavior of the aggregate success rate in repeated restricted geometric experiments.

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-08-17
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21975260
Primary Topic
Optimal Experimental Design Methods
Type
preprint
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preprint

The Aggregate Success Rate in Repeated Restricted Geometric Experiments: Expectation, Monotonicity, and Convergence

Yun Soo Kim
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Optimal Experimental Design Methods
preprint

The Aggregate Success Rate in Repeated Restricted Geometric Experiments: Expectation, Monotonicity, and Convergence

Yun Soo Kim
preprint en

Abstract

We consider m independent sequences of Bernoulli trials with success probability p, each terminated at its first success or after n trials, whichever occurs first. Let Xm,n,p denote the proportion of successes among all trials performed across the m components. We derive a unified integral representation for E(Xm,n,p) that covers both finite cutoffs and the unrestricted case n = ∞. For every m ≥ 1, n ∈ {2, 3, ...} ∪ {∞}, and 0 < p < 1, we prove that E(Xm,n,p) > p. For each such n and p, the sequence m ↦ E(Xm,n,p) is strictly decreasing and strictly convex in the discrete sense. We also establish almost-sure convergence of Xm,n,p to p and convergence of E(Xm,n,p) to p as m → ∞. Finally, for fixed m ≥ 1 and n ∈ {1, 2, ...} ∪ {∞}, E(Xm,n,p) is strictly increasing in p. These results describe the expectation and structural behavior of the aggregate success rate in repeated restricted geometric experiments.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Optimal Experimental Design Methods
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