Four Cases of Foresight and Futures Thinking in Public Universities Under the Discourse of University Disruption

Abstract The operating environment of higher education in the twenty-first century is undergoing rapid change. Public universities are in an imagination crisis, searching for alternative roles in the knowledge-based economy. To find the right actions at the right time, many universities have begun to incorporate foresight into their strategic thinking processes. This study investigates foresight practices in public universities through the lens of futures research, an interdisciplinary field concerned with the systematic study of possible, probable, and preferable futures. It begins by addressing key environmental tensions that shape the strategic challenges faced by public universities today, exploring how foresight and futures thinking contribute to the strategic capacity of these institutions, and reflecting on what can be learned from current foresight practices in public universities. Our findings suggest that foresight approaches are of significant assistance to public universities in identifying alternative futures, preparing for environmental changes, and capitalising on market-driven opportunities. Nevertheless, university foresight remains conservative and reinforces the traditional roles of universities in education and research. We recommend pursuing participatory and continuous foresight to capture novel potentials and stretching the temporal aspects of strategic thinking to enable more ambitious, long-term, and transformative roles for public universities in society.