Overestimation of racial ingroup worry about the COVID-19 vaccine and medical racism

We investigate whether there is pluralistic ignorance-a group-level shared misperception of what other group members are doing, thinking, or feeling-around COVID-19 vaccination and medical racism. We focus on two distinct anti-vaccination movements grounded in distinct racial groups: Black Americans and White Americans. Black American vaccine hesitancy is uniquely grounded in the history and continued reality of medical racism. White American vaccine hesitancy is influenced by factors including social media use, institutional mistrust, and psychological reactance. A Qualtrics panel sample (N = 2425) obtained by recruiting 50% Black (n = 1209) and 50% White (n = 1216) Americans were asked how worried they were regarding medical racism, HIV misinformation, COVID-19 vaccine safety, and whether the COVID-19 vaccine was violating individual rights. They were then asked how worried they felt the average White American and average Black American were on these issues. Black Americans had higher levels of worry on all items than White Americans. Among Black participants, there was a consistent pattern of overestimation of other Black Americans' worry across all issues-both COVID-19 related and medical racism related. Among the White participants, overestimation of group worry was only present for the COVID-19 items, not the items relating to medical racism. For both groups, one's own worry about each outcome and exhibiting Actively Open-Minded Thinking were predictors of overestimations of other's worry.